Francisco Manuel Argudo Iturriaga • Pablo José Borges Hernández • Encarnación Ruiz Lara
Abstract
The main aim of the study was to analyze the relationship between scoring and missing a goal in water polo and other associated factors such as the game micro situation, throw distance and throw angle. The investigation followed an observational design methodology. The sample was composed of 7,215 shots. It was analyzed using the Pearson chi-squared test and with multiple binary logistic regression. The goal success rate of penalty shots was greater in both male and female categories than for non-penalty shots (p < .001). A model was identified in woman’s water polo that was able to predict 63% of the goals, in which the highest possibility of goal success was observed for shots taken during ‘man-up’ situations, i.e. a numerical advantage (OR = 2.65) and transitions (OR = 2.04), whereas the least possibility of goal success applied to shots affected from more than 5 meters (OR = .57). The model applied to male water polo was able to predict 65% of the goals, the highest possibility of scoring a goal corresponded to shots taken during inequality situations (OR = 2.59), then transitions (OR = 2) and those from a central area in front of the goal (OR = 1.33); as in the case of women, the least possibility of goal success was also observed for shots taken from over 5 meters away (OR = .37).
Keywords tactical analysis • shot • match analysis • gameplay
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